NSE IPO valuation: my conclusion
At the ₹1,785 final IPO price, I would classify NSE as fairly valued to mildly attractive—not cheap, but not overpriced either.
The important distinction is this:
NSE is an exceptional business being offered at a reasonable price, rather than an ordinary business being offered at a bargain price.
At ₹1,785, NSE has an implied market capitalization of about ₹4.42 lakh crore. The IPO is entirely an offer for sale, so NSE itself receives no new capital. There are 247.5 crore shares outstanding, and there is no dilution from the IPO. (Shri Parasram Holdings Panipat)
As of now, NSE has not yet started regular trading; its BSE listing is scheduled for 10:00 AM IST on September 24, 2026. (mint)
1. What are you actually paying?
| Metric | NSE @ ₹1,785 |
|---|---|
| Market cap | ₹4.42 lakh crore |
| FY26 PAT | ₹10,302 crore |
| FY26 EPS | ₹41.62 |
| FY26 P/E | 42.9× |
| Q1 FY27 PAT | ₹3,120 crore |
| Q1 annualised PAT | ~₹12,480 crore |
| Q1 annualised EPS | ~₹50.43 |
| P/E on Q1 run-rate | ~35.4× |
| FY26 book value/share | ~₹129.75 |
| P/B | ~13.8× |
| FY26 dividend | ₹35/share |
| Dividend yield @ ₹1,785 | ~1.96% |
FY26 total income was ₹18,713 crore and PAT ₹10,302 crore. In Q1 FY27, total income recovered to ₹5,252 crore, +9% YoY, while PAT increased 7% to ₹3,120 crore. (NSE India)
This is why I don’t think 42.9× FY26 P/E alone tells the full story. Based on the latest quarterly earnings run-rate, you’re effectively paying around 35× earnings.
2. Why NSE deserves a premium valuation
This is not simply another financial-services company.
NSE’s competitive position remains extraordinary.
| Segment | NSE market share FY26 | Q1 FY27 |
|---|---|---|
| Cash market turnover | 92.99% | 93.05% |
| Equity futures | 99.79% | 99.72% |
| Equity options — premium turnover | 74.71% | 68.48% |
| Currency futures | 99.48% | 100% |
| Currency options | 100% | 100% |
| Corporate bonds | 85.65% | 81.15% |
(Groww)
That creates a powerful network effect. Traders go where liquidity exists; liquidity attracts more traders, market makers, brokers and institutions; that produces still more liquidity.
Replicating the technology isn’t enough to replicate that ecosystem.
And NSE monetises several layers of the ecosystem: trading, clearing/settlement, connectivity/co-location, market data, listings, Nifty/index licensing and other market infrastructure services.
That is a genuinely high-quality moat.
3. The economics are exceptional
NSE’s Q1 FY27 EBITDA margin was approximately 77.9%, and the balance sheet essentially carries no adjusted debt. FY26 ROE was around 33%. (Business Today)
There aren’t many businesses where additional transaction volume can flow through the infrastructure with margins anywhere close to this.
That’s one reason comparing NSE’s P/E with a normal bank, broker or technology company doesn’t make much sense.
And the company is sufficiently cash-generative that it doesn’t actually need IPO proceeds. The 100% OFS structure initially looks less attractive, but in NSE’s case I’m not particularly concerned about it because the balance sheet isn’t capital-starved.
4. But there is one BIG problem: options
This is the most important part of the NSE investment case.
Approximately 78.65% of FY26 operating revenue came from transaction charges, and options alone accounted for roughly 60.2% of operating revenue. (Business Today)
That makes NSE far more dependent on derivatives activity than many investors realise.
And this is happening:
NSE equity-options market share
FY24: 96.86%
↓
FY26: 74.71%
↓
Q1 FY27: 68.48%
(mint)
That is a substantial loss of market share.
BSE has been the beneficiary.
This is probably the single strongest argument against paying 45–50× earnings for NSE today.
5. Why BSE has been taking share
SEBI’s derivatives reforms changed the competitive landscape.
Among other measures, exchanges were restricted to one weekly benchmark-index options contract, alongside tighter risk monitoring and derivative eligibility requirements. (Securities and Exchange Board of India)
Historically, NSE enjoyed overwhelming liquidity across several expiries.
Once weekly expiries were rationalised, BSE gained a much better opportunity to build liquidity around its Sensex/Bankex products.
The result is showing up dramatically in BSE’s numbers.
BSE Q1 FY27:
| Metric | Growth YoY |
|---|---|
| Revenue from operations | +63.5% |
| EBITDA | +67.4% |
| PAT | +62.3% |
| Derivative premium turnover | +96% |
Meanwhile NSE PAT grew around 7%.
So NSE is much bigger and much more dominant—but BSE currently has considerably faster growth.
6. NSE vs BSE valuation
BSE closed around ₹3,268 on September 23, giving it a market cap around ₹1.33 lakh crore and trailing P/E around 47.6×. (StockAnalysis.com)
Compare:
| NSE | BSE | |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | ₹4.42 lakh cr | ~₹1.33 lakh cr |
| FY26 / trailing P/E | 42.9× | ~47.6× |
| P/E using latest NSE quarterly run-rate | 35.4× | — |
| Q1 FY27 PAT growth | ~7% | ~62% |
| Cash-market position | Dominant | Challenger |
| Equity futures | Near monopoly | Tiny |
| Options | Losing share | Gaining share |
So NSE’s apparent valuation discount to BSE is real, but justified to some extent by the growth difference.
I would not conclude:
“BSE trades at 48× therefore NSE deserves 48×.”
That’s too simplistic.
7. Global exchange comparison makes NSE look expensive
This gives us another useful reality check.
Around September 2026:
| Exchange | Approx. trailing P/E |
|---|---|
| CME Group | ~22–23× |
| Intercontinental Exchange | ~22× |
| Cboe | ~21–24× |
| Nasdaq | ~27–28× |
| NSE IPO | 42.9× FY26 / ~35× Q1 annualised |
| BSE | ~48× |
(YCharts)
So NSE isn’t cheap relative to global exchanges.
But there is a legitimate reason India can command a premium: Indian household participation, demat accounts, mutual funds, SIPs, derivatives activity, IPO issuance and India’s overall capital-market penetration can continue growing significantly faster than mature US/European markets.
I therefore wouldn’t value NSE at CME’s 22× multiple either.
8. FY26’s 15% PAT decline needs context
Headline numbers show:
FY24 PAT: ₹8,306 crore
FY25: ₹12,188 crore
FY26: ₹10,302 crore
So FY26 appears terrible at first glance.
But FY26 contained large unusual items.
NSE booked around ₹1,432 crore of settlement-related charges, including roughly ₹1,391 crore associated with resolution of long-running co-location/dark-fibre matters. There was also a substantial gain related to selling NSE’s NSDL holding. (mint)
Adjusted PAT reportedly declined much less severely—from around ₹10,699 crore to around ₹10,412 crore. (Business Today)
And Q1 FY27 has subsequently returned to growth.
So I would not extrapolate the FY26 -15% reported PAT decline into the future.
9. What I consider a reasonable valuation range
The latest annualised EPS is approximately ₹50.4.
Using that number produces a very useful valuation map:
| P/E | NSE value/share |
|---|---|
| 25× | ~₹1,260 |
| 30× | ~₹1,510 |
| 32× | ~₹1,615 |
| 35× | ~₹1,765 |
| 40× | ~₹2,017 |
| 42× | ~₹2,118 |
| 45× | ~₹2,269 |
| 50× | ~₹2,520 |
This table explains my view nicely.
₹1,500–₹1,650
I’d consider this a strong valuation if fundamentals remain unchanged.
You’re paying roughly 30–33× current earnings power for arguably India’s most important capital-market infrastructure asset.
₹1,700–₹1,900
This looks reasonable/fair.
The IPO price of ₹1,785 falls here.
There is some margin of safety if earnings continue growing, but you’re definitely paying for quality.
₹2,000–₹2,200
Valuation becomes more demanding.
NSE would need something like low-to-mid-teens long-term EPS growth to justify the multiple comfortably.
₹2,300–₹2,500+
Now you’re getting into 45–50× run-rate earnings.
At that point I would want substantially more evidence that the options-market-share decline has stopped and that other revenue streams are growing quickly.
The company can still perform very well operationally while the stock gives mediocre returns if purchased at too high a multiple.
10. A five-year thought experiment
Start with approximately ₹50.4 EPS.
Suppose NSE compounds EPS at 12% for five years.
EPS becomes roughly ₹89.
If the market then values NSE at 35× earnings:
Future price ≈ ₹3,110
Buying at ₹1,785 implies approximately 11.8% annual price appreciation, before dividends.
At 15% EPS growth and a 35× terminal P/E, the theoretical five-year value becomes roughly ₹3,550, or around 14.7% annualised price appreciation, again before dividends.
But consider the other side.
At only 8% EPS growth and P/E compression to 30×, five-year value is only around ₹2,220—roughly 4.5% annual price appreciation.
That’s why the entry multiple matters.
11. Dividend isn’t trivial either
NSE recommended ₹35/share for FY26, although ₹10 of that was a special dividend. (Business Standard)
At ₹1,785:
₹35 dividend = 1.96% yield
Excluding the special portion:
₹25 recurring-type dividend = around 1.4% yield.
NSE isn’t primarily a dividend investment, but distributions add something to total returns.
12. What worries me most
Not the co-location controversy. Much of that legacy issue has now been addressed.
Not the fact that it’s an OFS.
Not debt.
The two things I would watch quarter after quarter are:
Equity options market share and derivatives regulation.
NSE’s equity options share dropping from nearly 97% to ~68.5% is significant. At the same time, transaction charges remain almost 79% of operating revenue and the top ten trading members contributed roughly 47% of Q1 FY27 operating revenue. (The Financial Express)
The bullish case becomes much stronger if options share stabilises somewhere around current levels while the overall derivatives market keeps expanding.
It becomes weaker if BSE pushes that NSE share toward 50–55%.
13. IPO demand doesn’t look euphoric
The IPO finished:
Overall: 5.71×
QIB: 12.68×
NII: 6.55×
Retail: 1.39×
About ₹6,746 crore had already been allocated to anchors, including LIC, Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, Monetary Authority of Singapore and ADIA. (Business Standard)
This is healthy institutional demand—but not crazy mania.
The unofficial GMP also fell sharply from earlier levels to only a few percent ahead of listing. (The Economic Times)
I actually prefer seeing that versus a 50–70% speculative premium.
My valuation conclusion
At ₹1,785:
Business quality: Exceptional
Balance sheet: Exceptional
Competitive moat: Extremely strong
Profitability: Exceptional
Indian structural growth opportunity: Strong
Current growth: Moderate
Options-market-share trend: Concerning
Regulatory risk: Meaningful
Valuation: Fair / reasonably attractive
The IPO price isn’t a bargain, but 35× current annualised earnings for NSE is defensible.
The number I would personally keep front and centre is ₹2,000.
At around ₹1,785, I think investors are being compensated reasonably for the regulatory/options risks.
Around ₹2,000, the valuation is still defendable.
Around ₹2,250–₹2,300, I would become considerably more valuation-conscious.
And if listing enthusiasm pushes NSE toward ₹2,500, the thesis changes from “great company at a fair price” to “great company where a lot of the growth is already priced in.”
So for the IPO valuation itself, my answer is:
Yes — ₹1,785 looks broadly fair. I don’t consider it expensive, but I also would not call it deeply undervalued.
For someone thinking in 5–10 years rather than listing-day gains, the more important question is whether NSE can keep compounding EPS around 12–15%+ while stabilising its options market share. If it can, ₹1,785 could turn out to have been a very sensible entry valuation.
If you want, I can next do an even more useful exercise: calculate NSE’s “ideal buy price” for 15%, 18%, 20% and 25% expected annual returns over the next 5 years, using conservative/base/bull earnings scenarios.